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A surebet is a "gambling" term. It was used to describe a "cert" in a race or competition. However, it has developed to cover the term "Sporting Arbitrage".
Arbitrage is well known to the Banks of the World. It is where one takes advantage of a difference in different markets.
Banks make millions of pounds, dollars and euros every year using arbitrage in stock markets, currencies and commodities, for example. But arbitrage can occur whereever there is a market.
Lets take a very simple example of a Fruit Market, if one stall is selling apples for less than another is buying them then that is arbitrage, and there is a profit to be made.
With the onset of gambling on all sorts of sporting events, there came the possibilities of arbitrage between bookmakers prices on these sporting events.
But what really moved sporting arbitrage onto another plane was on-line gambling.
This meant that the prices of bookmakers from all around the world became available to anyone in the world with an Internet connection.
Bookmakers prices are decided by the amount of money laid on any particular outcome to that sporting event with that particular bookmaker.
Lets say that England are playing Brazil in the World Cup in Germany. It makes sense that more money will be bet on England in England than in Brazil and vica versa.
Therefore you would be likely to get a better price on England in Brazil and on Brazil in England.
It is these differences that creates sporting Arbitrage, also known as arbs or surebets.
This is the mathematics of the business, don't go, this can all be done for you, but it is useful to understand the maths involved.
There are various services available, at a price, that will find you the surebets, and there are various "surebet calculators" available for free at different websites.
Firstly, in order to calculate surebets you will need to work in "Decimal or European" odds. You may already be familiar with them or you may be used to UK or US odds.
For pay-outs you simply multiply your stake by this figure. It will include your stake.
The table below gives a few examples of what the same odds are in each format.
| UK odds | US odds | Decimal odds |
| 1/1 (evens) | +100 | 2.0 |
| 2/1 | +200 | 3.0 |
| 11/4 | +275 | 3.75 |
| 1/2 | -200 | 1.5 |
| 1/3 | -300 | 1.33 |
Most bookmakers sites have an option to show prices in each of these formats. However, many of the American Bookmakers do not offer this facility, so you will need to know how to convert prices.
TO CONVERT FROM UK TO DECIMAL. Divide the first number by the second and add 1. E.G. 11/4. Divide 11 by 4 = 2.75, add 1 = 3.75, this is the decimal equivalent.
TO CONVERT FROM US TO DECIMAL. US odds appear to be a little confusing this side of the pond.
Firstly, the + sign means that the odds are "odds against", whilst the - sign means that they are "odds on".
The figure after the + sign is the profit that you will make to a 100 stake, and the figure after the - sign is the amount that you will need to bet to make a 100 profit.
Therefore, to convert "+" prices, divide by 100 and add 1. E.G +250. Divide 250 by 100 = 2.5, add 1 = 3.5 this is the decimal equivalent.
To convert "-" prices, ignore the "-" sign and add 100 to the figure, divide the answer by the original figure. E.G. -200. ignore "-" sign, 200 add 100 = 300 divide by original figure 200 = 1.5. This is the decimal equivalent.
Confusing, it will soon be like falling off the proverbial log.
So, we now have all our prices in decimal prices, and it is from this that a bookmaker "rounds" his book. Lets have a look at a football match and 3 bookmakers prices, it's the trippers against the hackers.
There are 3 possible outcomes, the home win, the draw and the away win. The table below shows each bookmakers prices for each outcome.
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Market % |
| Sosos | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 100% |
| Silly Billys | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 95.2% |
| Robbers | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 111.9% |
If you divide 100% by any price you will end up with the percentage of the market represented by that price.
In the above table there are only 3 prices, 3.0, 2.0 and 3.5. Lets do that with each of these prices.
100% divide by 2 = 50%, 100% divide by 3.0 = 33.33% and 100% divide by 3.5 = 28.57%.
If you now apply these figures to the prices in the table above you will end up with a market % as shown.
So what, I hear you say, well this is what surebets is all about.
Sosos has a market % of 100% this means that the bookmaker should break even. Robbers has a market % of 111.9%, this means that they should make a profit, because it is over 100%. But Silly Billys has a market % of 95.2%, less than 100%.
This represents a SUREBET.
If you subtract their % from 100% then this is the profit that you can make. In this case it is 4.8%. In reality this would not happen with one bookmaker.
The prices would be made up of the best price available for each outcome from a large number of bookmakers on the net.
The simplest way to do this, is to convert the percentages into £, $ or Euros etc. For simplicity we will work in £'s, but just substitute with your currency.
Here is a real life example, World Cup 2006, Angola -v- Portugal. Best prices available are Home 10.0, Draw 4.7 and Away 1.55. Dividing 100% by these prices gives Home 10%, Draw 21.28% and Away 64.52%....Total = 95.8% = surebet of 4.2%
At £1 per % you would bet £10 on Angola, £21 on the Draw and £65 on Portugal. This would give you a guaranteed profit of 4% whatever the outcome. You are guaranteed a profit! That's a surebet!!!
Depending on the amount that to have to invest you might work on £2, £10 or whatever amount per % for each outcome.
If you are working to a fixed stake, a more complicated method of calculating your stake is as follows.
Divide 100 by the total market % of the event, above this would be 100 divide by 95.8 = 1.044.
Then multiply the % of each outcome by that figure, above this would be Home 10% x 1.044 = 10.44%, Draw 21.28% x 1.044 = 22.21% and Away 64.52% x 1.044 = 67.35%.
You would then split your stake according to these new percentages.
We have explained above what a surebet was, how to calculate one, and how to calculate your bet for a guaranteed profit.
It also explained that the prices that made up your surebet would have been the best prices available from hundreds of bookmakers on the net. However, should life be that simple.
There are hundreds of bookmakers offering you their prices on the net, and that is all you will see - their prices, but behind all those prices are the bookmakers "Terms and Conditions" (T&Cs).
These T&Cs will vary considerably in many ways.
Some will charge fees, even up to 10%, so a £100 bet might cost you £110. Some will charge a commission on winnings of say 5%. Others will charge for depositing money or withdrawing money or both. With some you cannot bet if you live in a certain country.
So you can see already that these factors must be taken into consideration. A 5% charge somewhere could turn your surebet into a sure loss.
If you are new to surebets, you are about to start a learning curve, but soon everything you read on this page will become second nature to you, and all the points raised above you will factor in to your decision as to what surebet is indeed a surebet.
But .................
The only thing that you cannot totally factor into your surebet, because it is not a constant, is voiding of bets.
There is a risk of having bets voided by bookmakers and even exchanges and even after they were accepted online.
The typical reason for doing so is that the odds offered were "obviously wrong". These are also known as "palps" - a palpable mistake.
Once you've placed the bets constituting a surebet, having one of them voided will leave you exposed to lose the other bets without any win, if the voided bet was the winning one.
The prudent action is then to place a loss-minimizing bet by taking the second best price you can get, even if it means locking in a small loss instead of a small win.
Unfortunately, many bookmakers won't even notify you of the voiding, in which case you will not find out until after the fact. You therefore have to assess the risk of voiding before placing the bet.
If odds look likely to be an error, which is typically the case when the surebet return is very high, be careful.
For high return surebets, use an odds comparison table, it will show if the particular price is totally out of line with the rest of the bookmakers, or it may be a bookmaker who charges a fee but offers a better price.
This you should be wary of. Asking the bookmaker to confirm the odds before placing the bets is a good idea, but will obviously often mean that you miss out on the surebet because the odds will have changed by the time you get assurance that they are okay.
Still, this is advisable. Surebetting is about many small accumulated returns, not about the big kill. And if you have bad luck after voiding, you'll be a long time recovering your loss again.
One possible action to take is to check bets you consider risky in terms of voiding after placing them. You might do this shortly after placing the bet. Or regularly, say daily until the bet is settled.
Exchanges tend to void considerably less frequently than bookmakers. After all, they didn't post the odds. Still, it may happen.
One example could be that the exchange discovers that incorrect match info was posted, for instance wrong home team or wrong kick-off time. They may then cancel all bets made and restart the market. And you've lucked out.
The same goes for bookmakers, so check event information as well as odds before placing bets.
Letting the other parts of the surebet to proceed without limiting your loss is gambling, and we do not gamble - WE ONLY SUREBET !!!
Earlier, you would have briefly read about "Exchanges". So what is an exchange?
A bookmaker is a company that "lays" odds, and you as a customer back those odds by having a bet on them. Those odds will have to give the bookmaker a gross profit, to cover staff wages, office costs, tax, a net profit, etc.
But with an exchange you the customer can either back or lay, in effect you can be the bookmaker or the bettor. In surebets we are only concerned with backing, and not laying ( although you can use "back - lay" surebets, and they are briefly explained later on).
There are advantages and disadvantages to using Exchanges in your surebets.
ADVANTAGES.
Because there are no bookmakers costs to be taken into account within the price, the prices tend to better.
Exchanges claim prices to be up to 20% better as a norm, but take this with a pinch of salt. Generally speaking they tend to be easier to deal with, in respect to their T&Cs.
Your winnings are almost immediately credited to your account.
DISADVANTAGES.
Exchanges make their money by charging a commission on net winnings. This will vary from 1% to 5%. This will obviously effect your profit on a surebet, and again could change a surebet into a sureloss.
You will need to factor this into your surebet calculations. A price of 2.0 will give you a return of £200 for a bet of £100, a profit of £100.
If the Exchange charges a commission of 5%, then they will deduct 5% from your £100 profit (not your £100 stake), so your return will be £195. This equates to a price of 1.95.
So when you are using an exchange within a surebet calculation remember to factor in their commission.
To do this deduct 1 from their price, this in reality is your stake. Deduce the commission % from the resultant figure and add 1 back to the final figure - this will be the real price to be used within your surebet.
E.G. The exchange price is 4.5, deduct 1 = 3.5 deduct 5% = 3.325 add back the 1 = 4.325, this is the real price to use in your calculations. If it is still the best price available then use it!
Depending on the amount that you are betting you may find that the exchanges do not have enough to bet at the price you want. However, most exchanges have very similar prices and so you may have to spread your bet around more than one exchange.
A surebet may exist for only moments, others for hours, and so speed can be of the essence.
This is even more true when using exchanges.
Bookmakers may not change their prices for relatively long periods depending on their "book", but every bet with an exchange has an effect upon the price, and that effect can be instantaneous.
It can therefore be very frustrating to use the exchanges, however, prices can get better and not just worse.
A "Back-Lay" surebet, is a bet that you will have a guaranteed winning with one particular outcome of the event.
Instead of betting all the outcomes, you are only concerned with one of the outcomes.
A "Back-Lay" surebet is a result of the difference between odds of different bookmakers (back) and exchanges (lay odds) in a way that, in the correct proportions, your stake is lower than your winnings for either outcome.
The Back-Lay surebet occurs when a "back" odds is higher with a bookmaker, than the equivalent "lay" odds with an exchange, so you can back the odds and lay the odds using a lower ratio for the same outcome of an event.
You still need to be aware of all the points raised on this page regarding surebets, since they also apply to "Back-Lay" surebets